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The Stock Market Is Not Poker, but confusion is understandable

The Stock Market Is Not Poker, but confusion is understandable

| March 20, 2021

Target Audience: Needs / Strongly Wants Financial Independence

Wants / needs Financial Independence and has the following personal characteristic

  1. Rational intellectual curiosity

  2. No Magical Thinking

  3. Understands that "effortlessly getting rich," like winning the lottery, which happens, is luck with a very low probability of success. 

"Bubbles are usually only identified and studied in retrospect after a massive drop in prices occurs"

Source: Investopedia (see link)

Also see below and link to Investopedia

"What Is a Bubble?

"A bubble is an economic cycle that is characterized by the rapid escalation of market value, particularly in the price of assets. This fast inflation is followed by a quick decrease in value, or a contraction, that is sometimes referred to as a "crash" or a "bubble burst."

Source: Investopedia

MY Bubble Definition:

Broad price level of an asset class needed to achieve financial independence (i.e. NOT one security) is so high that a historical (not unprecedented) drop would prevent the investor from "getting back to even" during their lifetime. Thus preventing or badly damaging their goal of financial independence

Take Some Profit Now

How much? See below for some ideas

  1. Sell enough of your big winners to equal what you originally paid for them
    A. Maybe let profits ride.  
    B. Or maybe let 50% of profits ride and take 50% of your profits off the table.

  2. Sell enough of your big winners to 100% fund your retirement nest egg requirement
    A. Do the math.
    B. If you could retire immediately, cash out 100% and be FI (maybe RE,) too [Financially Independent Retire Early - FIRE} Discuss with spouse.

Investing vs. Speculation

"Market participants do not wear badges that identify them as investors or speculators. It is sometimes difficult to tell the two apart without studying their behavior at length. Examining what they own is not a giveaway, for any security can be owned by investors, speculators, or both."

Source: Margin of Safety by Seth Klarman

Investments in securities do not offer a fix rate of return. Principal, yield and/or share price will fluctuate with changes in market conditions and, when sold or redeemed, you may receive more or less than originally invested.  No system or financial planning strategy can guarantee future results. 

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